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Peak performance: US M&A in 2018

What's inside

2018 was a strong year for dealmaking in the US, particularly domestically, but when will the tide turn?

US M&A weathers geopolitical storms

The political and economic backdrop may be unstable, but 2018 was a strong year for US M&A, especially domestically. However, a strong stock market cannot last forever, nor can a booming M&A market

US M&A enjoyed yet another busy 12 months in 2018. Deal value climbed by 15 percent and the domestic M&A market thrived. Overall domestic deal value was up 23 percent compared to 2017, and the ten largest deals of the year were all domestic transactions.

Steady economic growth, low unemployment and interest rates, and the billions of dollars released through the Trump tax cuts all boosted domestic dealmaking. In a survey of 200 M&A executives conducted for this report, more than three quarters see the US as the most attractive M&A market in 2019, and 80 percent expect the US economy to continue expanding over the next year.

But while there is plenty of reason to be optimistic, the positive deal and economic figures can obscure growing concerns that the cycle may be close to its peak. Stock markets have been more volatile this year and businesses are worried about the impact of the Trump administration’s actions.

More than half of respondents to the survey expressed their opposition to new laws that give the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) more powers to block inbound deals, and a third say they are worried about what escalating trade tensions between the US and China mean for their prospects. In what is supposed to be a strong seller’s market, the fact that close to a third of those we surveyed have suffered lapsed deals is further cause for caution.

As we go into 2019, there will be much for dealmakers to look forward to. Technology continues to transform the way businesses operate and will remain a reason to transact. The economy is still in good shape too, which will sustain confidence.

Dealmakers will not feel the need to sit on their hands just yet but will need to approach prospective deals with a degree of caution over the next 12 months to mitigate against the inevitable recession and stock market pullback.

 

Confidence, cash and tax cuts: The US M&A landscape in 2018

The US M&A market delivered another year of strong performance in 2018.

Private equity remains strong in 2018

Private equity buyout activity saw an increase in 2018, with volume rising 6 percent to 1,361 deals and value up 7 percent to US$214 billion.

US M&A survey: Deal drivers and dilemmas

We surveyed 200 executives on their views about the future of M&A and found that most remain optimistic about 2019

Sector watch

Sectors overview: Tech and energy top the charts

TMT and energy were the top two sectors by value; fintech is poised to invigorate dealmaking in the financial services sector.

Technology M&A value soars in 2018

After a period of frenetic dealmaking in technology over the last few years, which saw businesses across all industries scramble to adjust to the rapid shifts driven by digitalization, 2018 has seen value climb in the tech M&A sector

Consumer deals slip as digital disrupts

Digital disruption and its impact on physical retailers once again weighed on the consumer sector in 2018. Consumer M&A volume was down 13 percent year-on-year to 465 deals in 2018. Value decreased 28 percent to US$119 billion

Financial services deals are down, but 2019 brings hope

Financial services sector M&A volume decreased by 6 percent to 461 deals in 2018, with value decreasing 48 percent to US$80.2 billion. But there are signs that the sector’s M&A market is moving in the right direction going into 2019

Stability in early 2018 fuels oil and gas M&A

A stable oil price (for the majority of 2018) saw deal value climb in the energy, mining and utilities sector in 2018, despite volume falling

Real estate rises higher on megadeal surge

Real estate M&A value jumped 116 percent to US$74.9 billion in 2018, with deal volume staying flat at 46 deals

Next big thing drives healthcare M&A

Although deal volume and value in the pharma, medical and biotech sector fell in 2018, down by 3 percent to 580 deals and 27 percent to US$111.8 billion respectively, pharma companies have invested aggressively in strategic deals throughout the year

In Focus

Deal-changing decisions from Delaware

In the second half of 2018, the Delaware courts once again produced decisions that will guide M&A transactions in the future

Why, how and when should directors engage with shareholders?

Activism among investors is on the rise across the globe. Companies that empower directors to engage with shareholders can optimize investor relations, if they follow some simple but important guidelines

Conclusion

Four trends moving the US M&A needle in 2019

In 2018, the US M&A market has seen marked robust domestic activity and a strong tech sector but declining inbound dealmaking. We examine the four key factors that could characterize 2019

Meet our Partners

Global M&A Leaders

John Reiss

John Reiss
Partner, New York

 

Gregory Pryor

Gregory Pryor
Partner, New York

 

Allan Taylor

Darragh Byrne
Partner, Frankfurt, Stockholm

 

Allan Taylor

Allan Taylor
Partner, London

 

John Cunningham

John Cunningham
Partner, London

 

Alexandre Ippolito

Alexandre Ippolito
Partner, Paris

 

Christopher Kelly

Christopher Kelly
Partner, Hong Kong

 

 Barrye Wall

Barrye Wall
Partner, Singapore

 

Pipeline

Stability in early 2018 fuels oil and gas M&A

A stable oil price (for the majority of 2018) saw deal value climb in the energy, mining and utilities sector in 2018, despite volume falling

Insight
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3 min read

Energy, mining and utilities deal value climbed by 34 percent to US$350.1 billion over 2018, despite deal volume falling 8 percent year-on-year to 440 transactions.

34%

Percentage increase in deal value compared to 2017

The oil & gas industry, which benefited from an oil price that,for most of the year, had stabilized at approximately US$60 per barrel, was the primary driver of the increase in deal value. Oil majors with good cash balance sheets felt more comfortable taking a view on the targets that would deliver long-term growth, many shifting towards long-term shale-producing assets, and away from assets like those in the Gulf of Mexico.

Refiner Marathon Petroleum Corporation, for example, acquired rival Andeavor for US$31.3 billion, while BP placed a bet on the long-term viability of shale with the US$10.5 billion purchase of Petrohawk, a portfolio of US shale assets, from BHP Billiton. Transactions unwinding master limited partnership structures, such as Energy Transfer Equity buying a 97 percent stake in Energy Transfer Partners for US$59.6 billion, also lifted headline figures.

Companies returning cash to investors attracted increased investment over 2018, allowing them to raise the capital to execute deals.

 

Further volatility ahead

A sharp fall in the price of oil towards the end of 2018, when the price per barrel dipped below US$50, however, could put a brake on the steady M&A activity observed in the sector in 2018.

With investors expecting as much as IRRs of 20 percent over three years, renewed volatility in oil prices may slow transaction activity.

 

Top oil and gas deals
FY 2018

1: Energy Transfer Equity acquires Energy Transfer Partners (97.64 percent Stake) for US$59.6 billion

2: Marathon Petroleum Corporation acquires Andeavor for US$31.3 billion

3: Dominion Energy acquires SCANA for US$14.3 billion

    
    

 

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© 2019 White & Case LLP

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