Natural disasters and extreme weather events are not only environmental challenges—they also have significant geopolitical, economic and humanitarian impacts. This is especially true in regions like Eastern Africa, where recurring natural disasters such as droughts, floods and resource scarcity have historically contributed to conflict and instability. As these events disrupt communities, understanding their potential to ignite tension and violence has become more critical. Kenya, a leading economy in the region, is taking steps to address these challenges and help prevent future conflict arising from these natural disruptions.

White & Case is collaborating with the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG), a global pro bono law firm and longstanding pro bono client, to analyze and draft a report on the impact of natural disasters and resource scarcity on conflicts for the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to help the country prepare for these challenges.

Learning from the past

A team of ten Firm lawyers, led by London partner James Holden, examined five critical case studies: Darfur, the Horn of Africa, Lake Chad, the Omo-Turkana Basin and the Sahel. They examined how natural disasters and resource scarcity contribute to conflict in the region and drive internal instability, organized violence, radicalization, food insecurity and competition, population displacement and migration, loss of territory and border disputes.

“This region is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events and natural disruptions,” says Holden. “Kenya’s soaring temperatures, floods in the Omo-Turkana Basin and other crises have already led to displacements, food shortages and deaths. These events have the potential to fuel violence and conflict within and between affected communities.”

This report—one of a three-part series on the Horn of Africa—will also include an overview of the region’s historic conflicts and an analysis of Rwanda’s post-genocide reconciliation, along with the case studies.  

Actionable insights

The team needed to transform complex, wide-ranging research into concise, accessible materials that Kenya’s MFA could readily apply to real-world situations it will be facing.

Holden explains that providing actionable recommendations on such a complex situation was one of the most challenging and rewarding aspects of the project. But it was critical to provide practical solutions to ensure the report was a useful tool for the MFA.

As Kenya positions itself as a leader in conflict prevention and disaster response, this report will help the MFA to prepare for issues that might arise and to consider potential mitigations and resolutions for any conflicts posed by natural disasters and resource scarcity. By equipping diplomats and policymakers with clear, actionable insights, White & Case and PILPG are helping to shape a proactive, informed approach to one of the most urgent challenges of our time.

Public International Law & Policy Group's President, Dr. Paul R. Williams, discusses our project on natural disasters, resource scarcity and conflict in Kenya

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Somali nomads walking in a field with cattle.