Highlights July – August 2026
Uptick in deal volume: 15 firm offers (YTD 2026: 41; FY 2025: 56)
Deal values soar: £35 billion aggregate deal value (YTD 2026: £70.6 billion; FY 2025 £38.2 billion)
Industrials, oil & gas and real estate active: nine firm offers; £28.3 billion (YTD 2026: 18 firm offers; £39.6 billion)
Listed bidders and PE bidders both active: eight listed bidders (£19 billion); six PE bidders (£15.4 billion); one private strategic bidder (£583 million)
More consortium offers: two firm offers (YTD 2026: six firm offers; seven possible offers)
The summer heatwave was matched by a red hot public M&A market: 15 firm offers were announced, including five £1 billion-plus deals, with an aggregate value of £35 billion. Year-to-date deal value has exceeded £70 billion, the highest level since 2018. Listed companies led the charge, while private equity showed renewed appetite, particularly for larger transactions.
How our predictions are shaping up
Deal values accelerate
Aggregate deal value in July and August reached £35 billion, taking the year-to-date total for 2026 to £70.6 billion. Activity was driven by five high value transactions, which accounted for £32.6 billion of aggregate deal value in July and August.
Hostile offers and “bear hugs”
After no hostile offers in 2024 and only one in 2025, we have already seen four hostile offers and one unrecommended mandatory offer in 2026. Each hostile bidder had a substantial pre-existing stake of between 24% and 29.9% in the target, and three of the bids originated as “bear hug” approaches – announcements by potential bidders intended to exert public pressure on boards to engage. Beyond the three “bear hugs” that progressed to hostile offers, a further nine “bear hugs” were announced. Of these, three resulted in recommended firm offers, five were withdrawn and one remained ongoing as at 31 August. For further details on the recent increase in “bear hug” approaches, see: “The year of the bear hug: What eleven UK public bids tell us”.
Industry
Industrials, oil & gas and real estate sectors were the most active sectors, each recording three firm offers. Industrials and real estate featured several significant transactions, with aggregate deal values of £12.9 billion and £15 billion respectively. By contrast, oil & gas activity was concentrated at the lower end of the market, with an aggregate deal value of £423 million.
As we predicted, there has been an increase in “bear hugs”, with some developing into fully hostile offers while others have ultimately secured board recommendations following material price increases. In this environment, a detailed understanding of the target’s shareholder base is crucial and can make the difference between success and failure.
Predictions for the rest of 2026
The White & Case US Public M&A team's outlook for the remainder of the year
Deal values & volume
↑ Elevated
Deal values to increase, driven by transformational strategic M&A Significant variation in bid premia, with strategics paying robust premia for AI/digital transformation capabilities.
Bidder profile
↑ Elevated
Corporates to remain active, with further consolidation in financial services, natural resources and real estate. PE and infrastructure buyers to remain active, with more “club deals”.
Industry
→ Steady
Technology to be the most active sector, with continued activity in financial services, natural resources and real estate. Targeted activity in healthcare; increased activity in defence and industrials.
Hostile bids and activism
↑ Rising
More activist campaigns, including increased shorting and the possibility of bids by activists themselves. More “bear hugs” and hostile bids.
Deal features
→ Steady
Continued use of listed equity to fund bids and stub equity on PE bids. More “virtual recommended offers”.
Shareholder scrutiny
→ Watch
Greater shareholder scrutiny leading to prices being “bumped” or offers withdrawn, plus more lapsed bids and “near misses”.
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